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PSA’99
"International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment"
August 22, 1999 – August 26, 1999
Willard Inter-Continental Hotel
Washington, D C
PSA’99 Reception - Sunday, August 22, 1999
Willard Inter-Continental Hotel – Crystal Room – 7-10 p.m.
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M1-1 OPENING PLENARY SESSION (8:00-10:00) Ballroom Title: "Application of Risk-Informed Regulation in the New Millennium" Session Chairman: Dr. Zoltan Rosztoczy Speakers: Dr. Nils J. Diaz, Commissioner-U.S. NRC "The Role of Risk-Informed Regulations in Nuclear Reactor Regulations" Dr. Peter Rutledge, Director, Enterprise Safety and Mission Assurance, NASA "The Role of PRAs in the Space Program" Roland Naegelin, Member-Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Commission "Role of PSAs in Selected European Applications" Dr. Andrew C. Kadak , Consultant and President of the ANS "Risk-Based Regulation-The Time is Now" Dr. Herbert J.C. Kouts, Member-U.S. Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board "Use and Misuse of PRA at Department of Energy Defense Nuclear Facilities"
Session M2-1 (10:30-12:15) Buchanan Room Title: Failure Data Compilation and Analysis Chairs: Marty Sattison, INEEL, USA Jose Luis Roca- National Board of Nuclear Regulation- Argentina
Level 1-PSA for Japanese Light Water Reactors with Domestic Component Failure Rate Data Masajiro Sugawara, Hiromichi Takahashi, Mitsumasa Hirano Progress Toward a Component Failure Rate Data Bank for Magnetic Fusion Safety L. C. Cadwallader, T. Pinna
Session M2-2 (10:30-12:15) Douglas Room Title: Soviet Designed Reactor Safety Chair: Michael Stamatelatos – SCIENTECH, Inc., USA Insights From Level 1 PSA for Novovoronezh NPP (Unit 5) and PSA-Based Modifications I. Kouzmina, A. Lioubarski, B. Gordon, V. Rozine Organization and Management of the Plant Safety Evaluation of the VVER-440/230 Units at Novovoronezh Phil Pizzica, Vladimir Rozin, Wm. J. Puglia, Cyrus M. Afshar The Role of PRA in the S Assessment of VVER Nuclear Power Plants in Ukraine C. Kot, C.E. Dickerman, J.L. Binder Application of European Utility Requirements (EUR) for the Development of the PSA of the European Passive Plant (EPP) Design Alvio Bassanelli, Terry Schulz
Session M2-3 (10:30-12:15) Pierce Room Title: Principles and Theory of PSA Chairs: Lennart Carlsson – Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate Masahisa Higuchi – Japan Atomic Power Company A Guided Tour of Minimal Cutsets Handling by Means of Binary Decision Diagrams A. Rauzy, Y. Dutuit The Stand-by Failure Analysis in Bayesian Experiment Giun Fang, Hung-Ju Wang, Chen-Fu Chien, YuHao Huang Using Fuzzy Arithmetic in Containment Event Trees J. Barón , S. Rivera How Semi-Markov Processes Can Help to Estimate Probability of Scenarios with Time-Dependencies in a PSA Nathalie Bigot, Jean-Francis Michon
Session M2-4 (10:30-12:15) Taft Room Title: External Event Analysis Chair: Amir Afzali – Pacific Gas and Electric, USA Insights from the Seismic PSA of the BWR Model Plant at JAERI Tetsukuni Oikawa, Masaaki Kondo, Yuichi Watanabe, Iwao Shiraishi, Jiro Hirose, Ken Muramatsu Internal Flooding Analyses Results of Slovak NPPs V. Sopira WWER-1000 Seismic PSA Studies in Russia: Shear Wall Fragility Evaluation I. Kalinkin PANEL M2-5 (10:30-12:15) Ballroom Title: Lessons Learned from Recent Risk-Informed Applications Chair: Gary M. Holahan – U.S.NRC Panelists: Sam Collins – USNRC Ralph Beedle – NEI David Helwig – Commonwealth Edison Steve Rosen – South Texas W. Glenn Warren – BWROG/Southern Nuclear Co. Mario Bonaca - ACRS
Session M3-1 (1:30-2:45) Taylor Room Title: System Reliability Assessment Chair: David Bidwell – ERIN Engineering and Research, Inc. USA Black Start-Based Recovery of Offsite Power to SONGS P. Moieni, D. Henneke, S. Shepherd, P. Save, M. Mansell, D. Reny, J. Stetkar, S. Rao Linked Fault Tree Methodology As Applied to ComEd PSAs Milad Kalache Loss of Offsite Power Recovery Factors and Diesel Generator Mission Times: A Standard Approach Kenneth Canavan Application of Piping Reliability Models and Service Data to Evaluation of Large Service Water System Pipe Break Frequencies Mark A. Melnicoff, David A. Bidwell, Karl N. Fleming
Session M3-2 (1:30-2:45) Douglas Room Title: PSA Applications in Maintenance Chair: H. Dezfuli - SCIENTECH, Inc. USA
Development Of Maintenance Software for PRA Models Tsu-Jen Lin, Hung-Ju Wang, Cha-Ming Peng, Gwo-Ding Li On-Line Operation Support Modeling: Common Cause Dependency Zdenko Simic, Vladimir Mikulicic
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| Session M3-3 (1:30-2:45) Buchanan Room Title: Uncertainty Analysis: Principles Chair: Ali Mosleh –University of Maryland The Distinction Between Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties is Important: An Example From Aging Assessment George Apostolakis Calculation of the Uncertain Risk in Environmental Risk Assessment Joanna Jaworska, Tom Aldenberg Severe Accident Phenomenological Uncertainty: Risk and Accident Management Impacts Jon Birchley, Bernd Jaeckel Modeling and Measuring the Effects of Imprecision in Severe Accident Management Donghan Yu, Jaejoo Ha
Session M3-4 (1:30-2:45) Taft Room Title: Fire Safety Analysis in PSA-I Chairs: Steven P. Nowlen – Sandia National Laboratories, USA Fred Mowrer – University of Maryland, USA Applying a Fire IPEEE: Hot Shorts and Appendix R Verification Raymond HV Gallucci, Mark D. Flaherty, David F Wilson, Eric J Jorgenson Description of a Fire Hazard Screening Methodology F. Joglar-Billoch, F. Mowrer, M. Modarres Quad Cities Fire Risk Assessment William E. Burchill, Kiang Zee Risk Insights Gained from Fire Incidents Steven P. Nowlen, Mardy Kazarian, Nathan Siu, H. Roy Woods
Session M3-5 (1:30-2:45) Pierce Room Title: Risk-Informed Prioritization Chair: Kenneth H. Bych – Pacific Gas and Electric Company, USA Lichung T. Pong – Washington Public Power Supply System, USA Test Interval Analysis For the Isolation Valves at the Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant M. Yli-Kauhaluoma, R. Himanen Insights into the Risk Characteristics Derived from the Application of a Computerized On-Line Configuration Manager Lichung T. Pong Assessment of Risk from Postulated Degradation of PWR Core Internal Baffle-Barrel Bolts for Westinghouse PWRs Barry D. Sloane, Kenneth J. Balkey, Paul R. Stevenson, Karl Jacobs Simplified Risk Model Version II (SRM-II) Structure and Application S. Eide and T. Wierman
Session M4-1 (3:15-5:00) Taft RoomTitle: Reliability and Quality AssuranceChair: R. Niall M. Hunt – SCIENTECH, Inc. USA
Quality Assurance Handbook for Probabilistic Safety Assessment Jan Holmberg Assessment of PRA Quality G.A. Krueger, E.T. Burns, R.A. Hill Insights from the Development of Reliability Assurance Programme (RAP) Guidebook for Advanced Light Water Reactors Byung-oke Cho, R. Niall M. Hunt
Session M4-2 (3:15-5:00) Douglas RoomTitle: PSA in Aeronautics and Space Chair: Peter Rutledge, NASA, USA A Probabilistic Approach of Incorporating Safety Reliability in System Designs for a Human Mission to Mars George Simion, Jan Railsback Space Shuttle Multiple Phase Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Karon S. Woods Safety Factor of a Helicopter Exposed to Ground Fire With Failure Probability Estimation T.Niezgoda, M. Woropay J. Jazwinski, J. Zurek The Integration of Probabilistic Tools into the Aeronautics Risk Management Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center (LeRC) Jeffrey John Rusick, Shantaram S. Pai, Vincent R. Lalli, Michael H. Packard Estimation of Risk Trends in Shuttle Failure Data Richard P. Heydorn, Jan W. Railsback, and Tim C. Adams
Session M4-3 (3:15-5:00) Taylor Room Title: Uncertainty Analysis Chair: Reino Virolainen – Loviisa Power Plant, Finland A Simple Measure of Uncertainty Importance Using Entire Change of Cumulative Distribution Functions Moon-Hyun Chun, Seok-Jung Han, Nam-il Tak Different Sources of Uncertainty in Level 2 PSA: Their Characterization and Propagation Kwang-il Ahn, Dong-Ha Kim Sensitivity Analysis for Embedded Computer-Based Systems L. Meshkat, J. Dugan, J. Andrews
Session M4-4 (3:15-5:00) Buchanan Room Title: Common Cause Failure Analysis Chair: Dale Rasmuson – U.S.NRC Insights About Emergency Diesel Generator Failures from the U.S.NRC’s Common Cause Failure Database. Frances Marshall, Tom Wierman, Dale Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh Common Cause Failure Modeling in CANDU Design PSA Warren Vesik Insights From the Application of INEEL’s Common Cause Database at Commonwealth Edison’s Byron and Braidwood David A. Bidwell, Young H. In Common-Cause Failure Analysis for Reactor Protection System Reliability Studies Thomas E. Wierman, Steven Eide, Cindy Gentillon, Dale M. Rasmuson Common Cause Failure Analysis of Hydraulic Scram and Control Rod Systems in the Swedish and Finnish BWR Plants Tuomas Mankamo
Panel M4-5 (3:15-5:00 ) Pierce RoomTitle: On-Line Maintenance Issues and Insights Chairs: Kenneth Kiper – North Atlantic Energy Service Corp., USA Duncan Brewer- Duke Energy Co., USA Panelists: Greg Krueger- PECO Energy Company Biff Bradley –Nuclear Energy Institute Tom Hook – Southern California Edison Zdenko Simic – University of Zagreb, Croatia See-Meng Wong- U.S.NRC Insights from On-Line Maintenance Evaluations at Seabrook Station Kenneth Kiper, Larry Rau
AUGUST 24, 1999 ( Tuesday)
Panel T1-1 (8:00-9:45) Crystal Room Title: Modeling Cause-Effect Relationships in Applications of PRA Chair: Gareth Parry – U.S. NRC, USA Panelists: George Apostolakis – MIT
Doug True – ERIN Engineering and Research Phillip Gumley – AECL, Canada
Session T1-2 (8:00-9:45) Taft Room Title: Fire Safety Analysis in PSA-II Chair: Mardy Kazarians – Kazarians and Associates, USA Steven Nowlen – Sandia National Laboratories, USA Fire Risk Analysis for Lovissa 1 Turbine Hall Matti Lehto, Jussi K. Vaurio Estimation of the Frequency of Fire Scenario by Means of Improved Apportionment of the Frequency of Fires Associated with Engulfed Ignition Sources Julian Argirov Cable Hot-shorts and Circuit Analysis S. P. Nowlen, J. LaChance, Frank Wyant
Session T1-3 (8:00-9:45) Douglas Room Title: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Chair: Philippe Hessel – Atomic Energy Control Board , Ottawa, Canada A Sensitivity Analysis on Containment Performance for Wolsong, CANDU type Plants Y. Choi, Y. M. Song, D. H. Kim, Y. H. Jin Lessons Learned from an Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of a Transient Simulation for a PSA Eduard Hofer, Martina Kloos Selection of the Appropriate Technique for Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis: A Decision Tree Approach Claudio M. Rocco S., A. J. Miller A Treatment of Uncertainties for Component Reliability or Initiator Frequency Estimates Based On Combining Data Sources with the Potential of Non-Homogeneity V. Morozov
Session T1-4 (8:00-9:45) Buchanan Room Title: PSA Principles and Insights Chair: Dennis Bley – Buttonwood Consulting, Inc. USA Probabilistic Risk Assessment as a Forensic Science: The Effect of Daubert and Kumho Tire on PRAs as Evidence Vincent Brannigan, Carol Smidts The Results of Probabilistic Analysis of the Safety First Level for the Bilibino NPP Antonov A. V., Volnikov I. S., Dagaev A. V., Dolgov V.V., Ilyin Y. V., Shvedenko I. M. D. C. Cook PRA Common Cause Failure Database Updating Yu Shen, Jim Hawley Session T1-5 (8:00-9:45) Pierce Room Title: Risk-Informed Regulation and Regulatory Perspective Chair: J. Murphy – U.S.NRC, USA M. Versteeg – Dutch Nuclear Safety Department (KFD) PSA Applications: Safety Goals and Acceptance Guidelines G.M. Holahan, M.A. Cunningham, T.L. King, J.A. Murphy, G.W. Parry On the Role of Defense in Depth in Risk-Informed Regulation J. N. Sorensen, G. E. Apostolakis, T. S. Kress, D. A. Powers Development of Risk-Based Performance Indicators P. W. Baranowsky, S. E. Mays, T. R. Wolf A Pilot Study on Risk Informed In-Service Inspection in Finland J.Mononen, A.Julin, J. Hinttala, I.Niemelä, O Rantala, O.Valkeajärvi, R.Virolainen
PANEL T2-1 (10:15-12:00) Pierce Room Title: Revisiting the Assumptions Common to PSA’s Chair: Dennis C. Bley - Buttonwood Consulting, USA Panelists: David H. Johnson – PLG, USA Gareth Parry – U.S. NRC
Session T2-2 (10:15-12:00) Douglas Room Title: Data Collection Analysis Chair: Song Hua Shen- Virginia Power New LOCA Frequencies in Barseback-1 PSA Update An Application of a Piping Failure Database Bengt Lydell, Ralph Nyman, Ingemar Ingemarson Innovative use of EPRI Loss of Offsite Power Data for Dual-Unit Plant Frequency and Recovery Xavier Polanski Engineering and Safety Assessment of Field Experience Related to Pressurized Water Reactor Primary System Leaks M. B. Sattison, V. N. Shah, A. G. Ware, C. Hsu, C. L. Atwood, and R. S. Hartley Bayesian Modeling of Failure Rates and Initiating Event Frequencies E. Hofer, J. Peschke
Session T2-3 (10:15-12:00) Crystal Room Title: Combining DSA and PSA Chair: Frank Rahn – EPRI, USA Constantine Tzanos – ANL, USA Regulatory Treatment of Non-Safety Systems For Passive Plants: Application to the AP600 Alan E. Levin, Nicholas T. Saltos, Constantine P. Tzanos Regulatory Experience with Blending of Deterministic and Probabilistic Information in Risk-Informed Applications Samuel S. Lee, Michael C. Cheok, Richard J. Berret Dynamic Reliability Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation and First Order Reliability Methods Martin Woltereck Integrated Thermal Hydraulic Analysis and Probabilistic Assessment for Safety Evaluation and Scenario Screening Y. Guan, F. Li, M. Modarres
Session T2-4 (10:15-12:00) Taft Room Title: Reliability Analysis of Digital Systems Chairs: Sergio Guarro – The Aerospace Corporation, USA Carol Smidts – The University of Maryland, USA Dependability Estimation of Digital System by Operational Profile-Based Fault Injection Jong Gyun Choi, Poong Hyun Seong Qualitative Analysis of Petri Nets Gerald Point Development of Markov Model for Emergency Diesel Generators Based on Causal Loop Diagram Sun-Yeong Choi, Joon-Eon Yang Evaluation of Systems Reliability by Means of Binary Decision Diagram A. Rauzy, Y. Dutuit, J.-P. Signoret
Session T2-5 (10:15-12:00) Buchanan Room Title: Risk-Informed Regulation: Industry Experiences Chair: Doug True – ERIN Engineering and Research Inc., USA A Risk -Informed Regulation Pilot Project - Exemption from the Hydrogen Control Requirements at SONGS P. Moieni, T. G. Hook, B. Christie The Paradox of Risk-Informed Regulation - the Large Break LOCA Doug True, William E. Burchill, Gene Hughes Risk Informed Technical Specifications: An Example of a Successful Paradigm Shift in Nuclear Regulation Ray Schneider, D. Finnicum, A. Hackerott, T. Hook Pilot Programs for Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Regulation Bob Christie
Session T3-1 (1:30-2:45) Douglas Room Title: Level II and Consequence Analysis Chair: Douglas Chambers –SENES Consultants, Ltd., Canada Using Individual Plant Examination Data to Derive the Individual Risk of Early Fatality: Preliminary Results, Insights and Limitations of Approach Vinod Mubayi, Trevor Pratt, Mary Drouin An Approach to Study the Effectiveness of Mitigation AM in a Probabilistic Frame Osamu Kawabata, Nobuo Tanaka The Characteristics and Construction of CANDU CET Yong-Mann Song, Dong Ha Kim, Young Choi, Young Ho Jin, Kwang Il Ahn Accident Management Insights from the Level 2 PSA for the Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt Alfred Torri, Martin Zeller, Vladimir Pokorny, Uwe Luettringhaus Risk Impacts of Revising the Containment and Related ESF System's Performance H.P. Nourbakhsh, A.L. Hanson and W.T. Pratt
Session T3-2 (1:30-2:45) Pierce Room Title: Lessons from Operating Experiences Chair: Patrick Baranowsky – U.S.NRC, USA Rates of Initiating Events at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants, 1987 – 1995 W. J. Galyean, J. P. Poloski, C. L. Atwood, D. G. Marksberry, Steven E.Mays Evaluation of Loss of Offsite Power Events at Nuclear Power Plants: 1980-1996 L. Atwood, D. L. Kelly, F. M. Marshall, D. A. Prawdzik, J. W. Stetkar Westinghouse Reactor Protection System Unavailability, 1984 – 1995 S. A. Eide, M. B. Calley, C. D. Gentillon, T. E. Wierman, D. G. Marksberry, D. M. Rasmuson General Electric Reactor Protection System Unavailability, 1984 – 1995 S. A. Eide, M. B. Calley, C. D. Gentillon, T. E. Wierman, H. G. Hamzehee, D. M. Rasmuson Auxiliary / Emergency Feedwater System Reliability, 1987 – 1995 W. J. Galyean, J.P. Poloski, C.D. Gentillon, J.K. Knudsen, D.M. Rasmuson, D.G. Marksberry
Session T3-3 (1:30-2:45) Crystal Room Title: Combined DSA/PSA Applications Chairs: Kevin O’Kula – Westinghouse, USA Hossein Nourbakhsh – Energy and Environmental Science, Inc. Safety Analysis System Using Thermo-Hydrodynamic Simulation of Accident Sequences in Event Tree/GO-FLOW Takeshi Matsuoka, Toshio Ida, Hiroshi Nakamura, MACCS2-Based Methodology for Acute Risk Estimation in Nuclear Facilities (U) Kevin R. O'Kula and J. M. East RBMK-1500 Core Lifetime-Gas Gap Closure Probabilistic Assessment J.Augutis, V.Kopustinskas, M.Liaukonis Incorporating Aging Effects into Probabilistic Risk Assessment Curtis L. Smith, George Apostolakis, Tsu-Mu Kao, Vik Shah
Session T3-4 (1:30-2:45) Taft Room Title: Software Reliability Chair: Carol Smidts- University of Maryland, USA EISTRAM – Experimental Investigation of The PIE-Technique Bjorn Axel Gran, Harald Thunem A Challenge for Software Reliability Analysis: Descriptive Parameters in Concurrent Real-Time Software Systems Atoosa Jalashgar Fault Tree Qualitatively Improves Reliability of Safety-Related Software Marko Cepin, Borut Mavko, Function Point Analysis: An Application to a Nuclear Reactor Protection System Nihal Kececi, Ming Li, Carol Smidts Software Reliability Test In Nuclear Power Plant Uljin Units 3, 4 Tscheh-Kyuhn Oh, Dae-il Kim, Jung-Woo Park
Session T3-5 (1:30-2:45) Buchanan Room Title: Risk-Informed IST Chairs: Yehia Khalil – Northeast Utilities, CN, USA Tom Hook – Southern California Edison, USA Evaluation of Surveillance Test Arrangement of BWR using Time-Dependent Model Kohei Hisamochi, Hiroshi Suzuki, Shingo Oda Progressively Improving Technical Specifications with Risk Information — History, Current, Future Mark Reinhart Risk-Informed IST PRA Results for San Onofre, including Fire, Seismic and Shutdown Quantitative PRA Dennis W. Henneke, Gary Chung, Maureen Coveney
PANEL T4-1 (3:15-5:00) Crystal Room Title: Risk-Informed Decision Making Chair: Vicki Bier – University of Wisconsin - Madison Panelists: Adam Finkel – U.S. Occupational Safety and Heath Administration James Wilson – Resources for the Future Kenneth R. Balkey – Westinghouse Electric Company "Conservationism" in Risk Assessment: The Sound Versus the Fury Adam M. Finkel Chemical Safety Assessment: Use in Food Additives, Superfund, and Other Decisions James D. Wilson Expansion and Integration of Risk-Informed Applications for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, Structures and Components K.R. Balkey, G.R. Andre, N.B. Closky, S.K. Fowler, T.A. Meyer, B.D. Sloane Defaults and Incentives in Risk-Informed Regulation Vicki M. Bier
Session T4-2 (3:15-5:00) Douglas Room Title: Precursor Analysis Methods and Resolutions Chair: Patrick Baranowsky – U.S.NRC, USA Sophistication of SGTR Event Tree for Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis Norio Watanabe, Masashi Hirano, Hideo Takahashi Comparison of Some Precursor Based Core Melt Frequency Estimators J. Collet, P. Francois, B. Jourdain, B. Lapeyre Results of the Precursor Analysis for German Nuclear Power Plants H. Hoertner, S. Babst French Precursor Studies Methods and Insights V. Fauchille, F. Pichereau, J. Tirira, D. Touzalin. J.M. Lanore
Session T4-3 (3:15-5:00) Taft Room Title: DSA/PSA Interfaces and Uncertainty Considerations Chair: F. Eltawila – U.S.NRC, USA Enhanced Generalized Performance Assessment of Near-Optimized Pressurized Water Reactor Core Configurations by Multi-Valued Possibilistic Processing Anastasios Mironidis, Leon Lidofsky, Lefteris Tsoukalas Effects of SCDAP/RELAP5 Hot Leg Modeling on Prediction of the risk of Steam Generator Tube Rupture D. L. Knudson and C. A. Dobbe Integration of Severe Accident Research into the CEOG Generic and Plant Specific Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMGs) R. E. Schneider , W. Dove, M. A. Greene
Session T4-4 (3:15-5:00) Buchanan Room Title: PSA Application in Regulatory Agencies Chairs: Lindley Perryman – ESKOM, South Africa Vinot Mubayi - Brookhaven National Laboratory, USA
Improving Risk Insight Utilization and Communication in the Inspection, Assessment, and Enforcement Programs of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Douglas H. Coe Integration of Severe Accident Management into PSA R. J. Lutz, Jr. The Technical Basis for Off-Site Emergency Planning Lindley Perryman Risk Analysis based on Acceleration Measurements Fl. Popentiu, M. Radu, E. Friedman,
PANEL T4-5 (3:15-5:00) Pierce Room Title: Maintenance Rule Chair: Kenneth Bych – Pacific Gas and Electric, USA Panelists: Duncan Brewer-Duke Power Co., USA Yu Shen/Jim Hawley – D.C. Cook, USA Mark Melnicoff – ComEd, USA Estimating Effects of SSCs Out of Service - PRA Applications in Support of Maintenance Rule Yu Shen, Jim Hawley PSA Support of Implementation of the Maintenance Rule at COMED Mark Melnicoff August 25, 1999 (Wednesday) PANEL W1-1 (8:00-9:45) Pierce Room Title: IF I could Have Three Wishes-PSA Documentation – A User’s Perspective Chair: Nathan Siu- U.S.NRCPanelists: George Apostolakis – MIT Mary Drouin – U.S.NRC Mardy Kazarians – Kazarians and Associates, USA Gareth Parry – U.S.NRC Kenneth Kiper - NAESCO Session W1-2 (8:00-9:45) Douglas Room Title: Industrial Applications of PSA Chair: Martin Stutzke – Science Applications International Corporation, Prague Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Slaughterhouse Practices: Modelling Contamination Process Control in Beef Destined for Hamburger Tanya Roberts, Scott Malcolm, Clare A. Narrod The Creation of Regional Safety Management System Structure: Bashkortostan Republic Experience Victor G.Krymsky, Rustem Z.Khamitov, Farit M.Akhmedjanov, Andrey R.Yunusov Use of An interactive Matrix Approach for Safety Analysis of the Initial Operations Phase of the National Ignition Facility S. Brereton and C. Ma Effective Risk based Methods for Management of Safety, Health and Environment in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Lars Bodsberg
Session W1-3 (8:00-9:45) Ballroom Title: HRA Theory I Chairs: Irina Kouzmina –Scientific and Engineering Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety, Russia Peter Prassinos – Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA What Does a MERMOS Analysis Consist In? Corinne Bieder, Pierre Le Bot, Francesco Cara What are the CICAs? Retrospective Analysis of The Three-Mile Island Accident From the MERMOS Viewpoint Francesco Cara, Pierre Le Bot, Corinne Bieder MERMOS – A Second Generation HRA Method: What It Does and Doesn't Do Pierre Le Bot, Francesco Cara, Corinne Bieder Developments in the Decision Tree Methodology Anthony J. Spurgin, A. Bareith, I. Kozmina, G. Baumont and V. Smoutnev A Comparison of the Application of the CAHR Method to the Evaluation of PWR- and BWR Events and Some Implications for the Methodological Development of HRA Oliver Straeter, Bernhard Reer
Session W1-4 (8:00-9:45) Taft Room Title: Performance-Based and Maintenance Monitoring Methods Chairs: A. Azarm – Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) USA Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Support of On-Line Maintenance at Virginia Power Song-Hua Shen, Thomas P. John, Ross Anderson, Kenneth D. Tuley, David M. Bucheit, Ronald S. Thomas The First Feasibility Study of Maintenance Rule Application in Korean NPP KilYoo Kim , Taewoon Kim, Youngho Jin On-line Maintenance and Maintenance Rule Implementation at Both Turkey Point and St. Lucie Nuclear Plants Mahmoud Heiba, Jalal Zamanali
Session W1-5 (8:00-9:45) Buchanan Room Title: Risk Management Chairs: C. Heising – Iowa State University, USA Joseph O’Brien – U.S.NRC, USA Risk-Informed Maintenance in Support of Defense-In-Depth G. R. Morton, D.S. Cramer Use of PSA in Risk Management at a Research Reactor D. H. Johnson, D. J. Wakefield, R. F. Cameron The Use of PSA to Support Upgrading of Bohunice VI VVER 440 V-230 Ignac Poaeek
Session W2-1 (10:15-12:00) Buchanan Room Title: You Want What? PSA Documentation – A Producer’s Perspective Chair: N. Siu – U.S.NRC "Getting PSA Documentation Ready for Applications: Will We Ever Catch Up?" Karl N. Fleming, John E. Steinmetz, Young H. In Facilitating Technical Risk Communication among Non-Specialists Dennis C. Bley, Shigeo Kojima, John Wreathall Making the Most of Your Investment in PSA: the Role of Documentation and Information Management D. H. Johnson, J. C. Lin, S. E. Epstein, D. J. Wakefield, K. Frederick PSA Documentation: Does Anybody Read What I Write? Martin Stutzke
Session W2-2 (10:15-12:00) Pierce Room Title: Safety Assessment of Non-Nuclear Facilities Chairs: Robert Bari – Brookhaven National Laboratory , USA Experiences From Safety Assessment of a Train Leader Telephone System Gustav Dahll, Harald Thunem Reliability of a Computer Based Transit Car Door System Lori M. Kaufman, Ted C. Giras, Nabil Ghaly On Basic Concepts and Application of Risk-Based Strategy Design Thomas McSweeney, Borik Zadeh Air Route Traffic Control System (ARTCC) Construction Risk Management Project Ernest Lofgren, Erin Collins, Bram Visser
Session W2-3 (10:15-12:00) Ballroom Title: HRA Theory II Chairs: Jaroslav Holy – Nuclear Research Institute REZ, Check Republic Dennis Bley – Buttonwood Consulting, Inc. USA A Framework For Analyzing Human Commission Errors – Face Pekka Pyy Human Reliability in Severe Accident Management Pekka Pyy Evaluation of Human Performance Issues for Fire Risk J.A.Forester, D.C.Bley, S.E.Cooper, A.M.Kolaczkowski, A. Ramey-Smith, C. Thompson, D. Whitehead, J. Wreathall Using a Decision Tree to Estimate Human Error Probabilities in a Level 2 PSA: The HORAAM Method Frédéric Menage, Aurelic Vogel, Bernard Chaumont
Session W2-4 (10:15-12:00) Douglas Room Title: PSA Initiatives in International Regulatory Bodies Chair: George Apostolakis – Massachusetts Institute of Technology , USA OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Activities in Risk Assessment An International Perspective B. Kaufer, G. Frescura, J.A., Murphy Regulatory Use of PSA in Germany R.Görtz, H.P.Berg, H.Schott IAEA Activities in PSA A. Gomez Cobo, V. Ranguelova Use of PRA in the AP600 Design Certification Review Nicholas T. Saltos, Adel El-Bassioni
Session W2-5 (10:15-12:00) Taft Room Title: PSA Applications in Operating Plants Chair: Lichung T. Pong – Washington Public Power Supply System, USA Using PSA Applications in EDF Nuclear Power Plants Philippe Francois, Helene Pesme, Laurent Magne The Problem of Nuclear Power Installations Safety: Risk Analysis and Reconfiguration of Control Algorithms V.N. Efanov, T.R. Sujargulav Commonwealth Edison Byron/Braidwood PSA Upgrade Young H. In, Shawn S. Rodgers "Back of the Envelope" Risk Assessment Techniques Earl M. Page
Session W3-1 (1:30-2:45) Buchanan Room Title: Outside the Box- PSA Documentation- The Promise of Technology Chair: Nathan Siu – U.S. NRC, USA The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Risk and Reliability Information Base Curtis L. Smith PSAInfoSys, a PC Based Structured Knowledge Base Wolfgang Werner, Hans Erikson, Barry Kaufer Relational Databases for PRA Configuration Control James K. Liming, Thomas G. Hook
Session W3-2 (1:30-2:45) Douglas Room Title: Knowledge-Based Systems and Computer Tools Chairs: Philippe Hessel – Atomic Energy Control Board, Canada Mohammad Modarres – University of Maryland, USA Benefits Expected from Automatic Studies with KB3 in PSAs at EDF Marie Gallois, Mylene Pilliere, Nathalie Villatte Development of Emergency Response Support System for the Fugen NPS Masutake Sotsu, Yukihiro Iguchi, Kouichi Mizuno, Hiroaki Shimozaki,Katsuyuki Kumasaka, Tatsuro Kouzaki, James Raines, Brenda Deitke The Application of GUI Based Computer Package to TIRM Chao-Ming Peng, Shian-Hung Huang The Development of Tai-Power Integrated Risk Monitor - TIRM Yuhao Huang, Hwai-Chiung, Ching-Chuan Yao Software for Living PSA Levels 1 and 2 R.Virolainen, I. Niemelä
Session W3-3 (1:30-2:45) Taft Room Title: PSA in Radioactive Waster Processing and Other Environmental Issues Chair: William R. Holloway – ShawPittman, USA Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Storage Facility of VVER-1000 Spent Fuel R.T. Islamov, V.N. Papushkin, M.D. Ivanchikov Frequency of Misloading Spent Nuclear Fuel into a Waste Package Stanely H. Levinson, John Massari Probabilistic Safety Assessment of IFMIF Plant L. Burgazzi, F. Bianchi
Session W3-4 (1:30-2:45 Ballroom Title: HRA-Performance Shaping Factors Chairs Harold Blackman – INEEL, USA P. Kafka - Gesellschaft fur Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Germany, Proposal of Performance Influencing Factors for the Assessment of Human Error Under Accident Management Situations Jaewhan Kim, Wondea Jung A Hybrid HRA Model for Applying in Conventional PRA Song-Hua Shen, Ali Mosleh Dynamic Human Interaction Models for Risk Monitoring Jeffrey A. Julius Human Model Simulation to Deduce HCR Curves for PSA/HRA Practice Wei Wu, Takashi Nakagawa, Hidekazu Yoshikawa
Session W3-5 (1:30-2:45) Pierce Room Title: Risk-Based Ranking Methods Chairs: M. Versteeg – Dutch Nuclear Safety Department (KFD) Jose Luis Roca – National Board of Nuclear Regulation – Argentina Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs Terry F. Bott, J. Michael Butner Study on Risk Ranking Method to Optimize Plant Design and Management K. Ushijima, Y. Narumiya, K. Yonebayashi, T. Kuramoto, K. Toyoshima Optimization of Surveillance Test Interval in Nuclear Power Plants by Using Analytic Unavailability Model and Genetic Algorithm Joon-Eon Yang,Tae-Yong Sung, Youngho Jin Genetic Algorithm Application in Maintenance Scheduling Optimization: Cost and Risk Models Mohammad Hadi Hadavi, Mohammed Modarres
PANEL W4-1 (3:15-5:00) Ballroom Title: Technical Issues Related to New ASME Methodology Standard for PRA Chairs: Robert J. Budnitz-Future Resources Associates, Inc., USA Mary Drouin – U.S. NRC Panelists: Gilbert Zigler-ITS Corporation Alan Camp – Sandia National Laboratories Rick Grantom – Houston Lighting and Power Company, USA Ken Balkey – Westinghouse Electric Co., USA
Session W4-2 (3:15-5:00) Taft Room Title: PSA Software Tools Chair: Steve Novak, INEEL, USA VRAM – A Visualization Tool for Applying RAM Analyses to Operation and Training Frances Marshall, Steve Novak Representing Dynamic System Behaviors Through a Hierarchic Model Y.S. Hu and M. Modarres Ramas Risk Calc: A Microcomputer Environment for Probabilistic Arithmetic Scott Ferson New Faster and Complete Approach to Quantify PRA Reni Banov, Zdenko Simic, Vladimir Mikulicic
Session W4-3 (3:15-5:00) Douglas Room Title: Organizational Factors Chair: David Johnson – PLG, USA On the Inclusion of Organizations Factors in Incident Investigation Rick Weil, George Apostolakis Assessing the Perception of Safety in Risky Industries: Assistance for Management Jean Schram The Use of Stakeholder Archetypes in Modelling the Evolution of Perceived Risks Luca J. Gratton and William E. Kastenberg
Session W4-4 (3:15-5:00) Pierce Room Title: Risk-Informed Applications: International Experiences Chairs: William J. Parkinson – Data Systems and Solutions, US Mohammad Modarres – University of Maryland, US Cofrentes NPP Risk-Informed Inservice Testing Project Results Santiago de Gregorio, Joaquin Suarez, William J. Parkinson Use of living PSA in Regulatory Decision Making R.Virolainen, A.Julin, I.Niemelä Viewpoints of the Hungarian Nuclear Safety Authority on Application of PSA in Regulatory Decision Making G. Macsuga, E. Hollo, P. Siklossy Incorporation of PRA Into the Regulatory Decision and Policy Making in Slovakia Alexander Duchac, Jozef Kubanyi Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Integrated Design Process for KNGR Development Jang Hwan Na, Hae Cheol Oh, Jae Sung Lee, Beom Su Lee
Session W4-5 (3:15-5:00) Buchanan Room Title: Decision Making in Risk-Informed Applications Chairs: T. King - U.S. NRC, USA Tom Hook – Southern California Edison, USA Outage Schedule Cost-Benefit-Risk Analysis – a PRA Technology Application James K. Liming, C. Richard Grantom Developing a Performance-Based Regulatory System for DOE Facilities J. Rempe, T. Leahy, G. Apostolakis, M. Golay, A. Stevens The Role of Risk Information in Compliance Management for Department of Energy Operations E. A. Hughes, S. Fong, A. J. Unione, The Relationship of Deterministic and Probabilistic Analyses in Establishing the Basis for Technical Specifications
Plenary Session W5-1 (5:15-6:30) Ballroom Title: Opportunities and Challenges Presented by the New PRA Methodology Standard Chair: Ali Mosleh – University of Maryland, USA Robert J. Budnitz – Future Resources Associates, Inc. Panelists: Biff Bradley – Nuclear Energy Institute Kenneth Kiper – NAESCO, USA Mary Droiun – U.S. NRC George Apostolakis – MIT, USA
August 26, 1999 (Thursday) Session TH1-1 (8:00-9:45) Douglas Room Title: PSA Quality and Guidelines Chair: M. Cunningham – U.S.NRC, USA Creating Guidelines for a Contemporary Risk Management Program John Steinmetz, William E. Burchill, Karl N. Fleming Managing Simultaneous PRA Upgrades William E. Burchill, Doug True Quality Assurance for Probabilistic Safety Assessments Scott Ferson Session TH1-2 (8:00-9:45) Chase Room Title: Risk Monitoring Applications Chairs: G. Krueger – PECO Energy Co, USA Insights from Developing Shutdown Risk Monitor Models Jeffrey A. Julius, Diane M. Jones Evaluation of Refueling Outage Core Damage Frequency for a PWR Plant Ching-Hui Wun, Chin-Ming Ko Evaluation of Refueling Outage Core Damage Frequency for a BWR-4 Plant Jyh-Der Lin, Yi-Jui Chang Advanced On-line and Shutdown Safety Monitor At San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Dennis W. Henneke, Tom Hook
Session TH1-3 (8:00-9:45) Taft Room Title: Experiences with PSA in Operating Plants Chain: Chang Park – Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute Managing the Living PRA During Transition Kenneth H. Bych Risk Impact of Electric Grid Deregulation: A Scoping Study Nicholas T. Saltos, Daniel M. O'Neal, Adel El-Bassioni Safety Monitor™ Implementation for Dual Units, at Surry Power Stations Kenneth D. Tuley, Thomas A. Morgan, Jeffrey D. Leary
Session TH1-4 (8:00-9:45) Crystal Room Title: HRA Applications I Chair: Gareth Parry – U.S.NRC Retrospective Event Analysis using CODA and Perspectives on Human Error Prediction Bernhard Reer Human Reliability Analysis for Novovoronezh NPP Unit 5 PSA I. Kouzmina, A. Lioubarski, V. Smoutnev, AJ. Spurgin Human Reliability Assessment In Loviisa NPP Refueling Outage Matti Kattainen, Jussi K. Vaurio New Emergency Procedures of Westinghouse Type From Point of View of Human Factors and Human Reliability Jaroslav Holy
Panel TH1-5 (8:00-9:45) BallroomTitle: Risk-Informed Performance Based Management Decision Applications in Industry Chair: Michael Golay – MIT, USA Panelists: Rick Grantom- South Texas Project Yehia Khalil-Northeast Utilities Sunil Weerakkody-U.S.NRC William Burchill – Commonwealth Edison
PANEL TH2-1 (10:15-12:00) Douglas Room Title: Risk-Infomed Regulation – Global Considerations Chair Ashok Thadani – U.S.NRC Panelists: Joe Murphy – U.S.NRC Ted Cloninger –South Texas Laurence Williams- NII, UK Paul Portney – Resources for the Future B.John Garrick – ACNW G. Apostolakis- MIT
Session TH2-2 (10:15-12:00) Chase Room Title: Shutdown PSA Chair: R. –M. Zander – Kernkraftwerke Gundremmingen Betriebsgesellschaft (KGB), Germany
Automated Shutdown PSA Model Development for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Donald E. Vanover, Donald E. MacLeod, Leo B. Shanley, J. Thomas Wilson Modeling Techniques and insights from the Shutdown PSA for the Kernkraftwerk Muehleberg Alfred Torri, Dieter Haschke Session TH2-3 (10:15-12:00) Taft Room Title: PSA Applications in Eastern Europe Chair: Ivan Cillik – VUJE-Trnava Inc., Slovak Republic Internal Fire Analysis for J.Bohunice V2 NPP Within the Full Power and Shutdown PSA Zoltán Kovács, Robert Spenlinger and Stanislav Rýdzi Mochovce NPP Safety Measures Evaluation from Point of View of Operational Safety Enhancement Ivan Cillik, Lubos Vrtik, Zoltan Kovacs, Helena Novakova Operational Data Collection Elaboration and Reliability Parameters Calculation for V-1 and V-2 NPPS J. Bohunice PSA Purposes Ivan Cillik, Dana Stojkova, Differences in Approaches Used to Develop PSA Study for Different CANDU Plants Liliana Comanescu
Session TH2-4 (10:15-12:00) Crystal Room Title: HRA Applications II Chair: Joy Rempe – INEEL, USA Preliminary Master Logic Diagram for Personnel Safety L. C. Cadwallader A Hazard Analysis Technique for Human-Computer Interface Design Chin-Feng Fan, Swu Yih, Wen-Hou Chen A Technical Approach for Controlling Human Error in the Disassembly of Nuclear Weapons Walter E. Gilmore, F. Kay Houghton Procedural Reliability in the Telecommunications Industry Jalal Zamanali, Anil Macwan, Michael Tortorella, Philip Scarff
TH3-1 CLOSING PLENARY SESSION (1:30-2:30) Ballroom Honorary Chairman: Kenneth Rogers Chairs: Ashok Thadani – U.S. NRC Vicki Bier – University of Wisconsin – Madison Biff Bradley – NEI Eduard Hofer – GRS, Germany |
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BREAK 10:00-10:30
August 24 (Tuesday)
AUGUST 25 (Wednesday)
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Copyright 1998 University of Maryland, College Park: Materials and Nuclear Science Department If you have any questions, please contact: Prof. Mohammad Modarres, modarres@eng.umd.edu