Preface

Table of Contents

Introduction

Theory: Formalisms for Dealing With Model Uncertainty

A Commentary on Model Uncertainty
G. Apostolakis

Model Uncertainty and Probability
G.W. Parry

Implications of Model Uncertainty for the Practice of Risk Assessment
K.B. Laskey

A Bayesian Appoach to Model Uncertainty
A. Buslik

Aspects of Modeling Uncertainty and Prediction
M.D. Mckay

Uncertainty and Its Propagation in Dynamic Models
J. Devooght

Some Illustrative Examples of Model Umcertainty
V.M. Bier

Individual Model Evaluation and Probabilistic Weighting of Models
C.L. Atwood

Model Uncertainty: Probabilities for Models?
R.L. Winkler

Applications: Coping with Model Uncertainty

Model Uncertainty from a Regulatory Point of View
L.R. abramson

Dealing with Phenomenological Uncertainty in Risk Analysis
T.G. theofanous

Computerized Fire Risk Assessment Models: A Regulatory Effectiveness Analysis
V. Brannigan and C. Meeks

Addressing Model Uncertainty in Dose-Response: The Case of chloroform
J. Evans

Some concepts of Model Uncertainty for Performance Assessments of Nuclear Waste Repositories
N.A. Eisenberg, B. Sagar, and G.W. Wittmeyer

On the Estimation of Failure Rates for living PSAs in the Presence of Model Uncertainty
S.P. Arsenis

Empirical Bayesian Inference and Model Uncerainty
K. Porn

Statistics of Past Errors as a Source of Safety Factors for Current Models
A.I. Shlyakhter

Working Group Discussion Summaries

Group I: Model Uncertainty And Its Effect On Regulation

Group II: Definition of Model Uncertainty and its Characterization

Group III: Quantification of Model Uncertainty

Return to Workshop I Publication?